Entries in Double Top (8)
First Solar (FSLR): Double Top or Bullish Triangle?
Solar stocks are blazing higher, bucking the weakness in the broader market. First Solar (FSLR) is a leader within the sector.
I've been trading FSLR for over a year, but it's been a while since I profiled the stock on this site.
When trading any of the solar stocks, it's important to remember that solar is an alternative to traditional energy sources like oil and natural gas. When trading solar stocks, the prices of traditional energy sources are really all that matter.
Alternative energy sources are increasingly competitive and attractive when traditional energy prices are high. So, right now, with crude oil at $110 and natural gas at $10, solar plays are extremely attractive. If these prices go higher, so too will FSLR and other alternative energy plays. Conversely, if crude oil and natural gas prices reverse lower, FSLR and the other solar plays will weaken.
With this dynamic in mind, I want to point out the confluence of two patterns in FSLR. The first is a double top around the $280 level, extending back to late December. FSLR's recent run caused the stock to become overbought at the same time it was reaching resistance at the double top. Naturally, the circumstances led to a pause in the stock's recent rally.

The other pattern that is unfolding is a short-term bullish triangle. It's curious that the short-term bullish triangle (a bullish continuation pattern) is forming just below the intermediate-term double top (a bearish reversal pattern).

It's almost as if the bulls in FSLR are playing a game of chicken with the bears. Who's going to blink (trade) first? My bet is that both bulls and bears in FSLR are waiting to see what happens in energy prices, especially crude oil. If crude continues higher, moving up to perhaps $115, then the bulls should take charge, break FSLR out from the bullish triangle, and invalidate the double top. Conversely, if crude oil drops to $100 to $105, then the double top will remain valid and FSLR should breakdown from its triangle and pullback to $250 to $260.
Ag Boom About to Take a Breather (MON and MOO)
The farming business is on fire thanks to the booming prices of commodities. The agriculture sector has far outpaced the broader market so far this year.
The long-term trend in ag has bucked the general weakness in the broader market. But even the agriculture stocks are looking a little weak. I'm seeing a lot of toppy price action across the space.
Take a look at Monsanto (MON), one of the best in the group. MON traced a lower high at $120 from which it recently rolled over. A breakdown below $95 will lead to a deeper pullback.

Look at the chart for the Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) ETF. MOO is a diversified group of companies operating in the ag business. The ETF recently topped out near $60, forming a double top over the two months between January and February.

I'm still extremely bullish on the ag business for many years to come. Within the broader group, Potash (POT) is one of my favorites. But in the short-term, the sector might be due for a pullback.
That said, I wouldn't short any stocks in the group. Instead, I'd snug up stops and make sure that risk is in check in any long positions and maybe be a bit more patient when looking to buy into new positions.
2 Price Patterns to Play Wednesday
Volatility will be with us again Wednesday. Expect another massive gap lower thanks, in part, to Apple (AAPL).
The much-loved AAPL delivered a dismal earnings outlook, reinforcing the worries over a slowdown in consumer spending. AAPL is down by about 11 percent in pre-market trading.
Emotions will run high again today and we're likely to see some more wild swings in the broader market, so we're looking at a couple of patterns off the beaten path.
FXE - Double Top
We're watching the unfolding of a potential double top in the Euro Currency Shares Trust (FXE). This ETF tracks the EUR/USD exchange rate.
The FXE reveals that the dollar is weakening when it's trending up or that the dollar is strengthening when it's trending down.
Not a lot of people expect the dollar to strengthen, especially with the Fed on the offensive. But in our view, that's all the more reason to watch for a bullish reversal in the greenback vis-à-vis a breakdown in the FXE.

NITE - 123 Bottom
Shares of Knight Capital Group (NITE) are holding up remarkably well in this market climate. The stock started bottoming out back in October. NITE has since traced a higher relative low and broke above horizontal resistance at $14.75,completing a 123 bottom. Look for the stock to hold above resistance, which should now serve as support.

S&P 500 -- Double Top
What a day!
So many of the patterns we're tracking are paying off, especially today. Remember our preview of gold. Get a load of the action in the U.S. dollar, specifically the follow-through in EUR/USD. Recall the forecast in the banking sector. Just look at the meltdown in anything involving the housing sector or mortgages.
Amazing!
Most importantly as it relates to the broader market, the S&P 500 ($SPX) confirms its double top. The short-term downside target is 1420.

Freeport McMoran -- Double Top
Commodities prices are pulling pack this morning along with the broader equity market. Freeport McMoran (NYSE:FCX) -- one of the favorite commodity stocks -- is under pressure.
Although we don't like to call tops in powerful upward trends, we can't help but notice the potential for a double top in FCX. The pattern confirms if/when the stock breaks below $105.








