Entries in Double Bottom (7)

Checking In with the Marriott (MAR) Double Bottom

Posted on Monday, January 28, 2008 at 09:38PM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

We've had a lot of success trading beaten up stocks that have bottomed out in this oversold market environment. We're sticking with this strategy by following the double bottom in Marriott (MAR).

Hotel stocks were beaten down in a big way over the last several months. But it's one of the few groups that has stabilized over the last few months. This stabilization has caught our eye. We want to play it through MAR

MAR traced a double bottom at $31 over the last several weeks. The stock confirmed its double bottom with the break above short-term horizontal resistance at $34. The previous resistance served as support during Monday's pullback. Look for the stock continue pushing higher, but use this week's volatility to your advantage. Entries on intra-day pullbacks near $34 will offer a good risk/reward set-up.

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How To Negotiate the Volatility in the Market

Posted on Friday, January 25, 2008 at 11:30AM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in , , | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

It's been one of the wildest weeks ever in the stock market. From Monday's low to Friday's high, we've seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) swing by about 800 points. Wow!

This volatility is tough to negotiate unless you're extremely nimble in your trading, willing to take losses quickly, and even willing to take profits rather quickly. The volatility also requires a balanced approach to your trading, which is accomplished by trading a mix of bullish and bearish positions. With that mix in mind, we'll look at four price patterns today: two bullish and two bearish.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) - Bullish Flag

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We've been bullish on gold -- the commodity -- for many hundreds of dollars an ounce. The yellow metal is breaking to new highs yet again. Though our preferred way to play this trend is through the metal itself (GLD), we're starting to look at some of the mining stocks.

Back in early December, we detected a head and shoulders top in AEM. The stock refused to breakdown below the neckline of the pattern. The rejection of the head and shoulders top was a bullish indication that the stock would trend higher. And trend higher it did.

Recently, AEM broke out from an aggressive bullish flag. The formula here is pretty simple: AEM, and other mining stocks, go higher if GLD continues higher.

Freeport McMoran (FCX) - Double Bottom

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Another way to play further upside in gold, and copper prices, is through FCX. The stock has so far staged a big rebound from a double bottom near $69. Like most stocks, FCX is up a lot in the last three days, so be careful about chasing it higher. Use a tight stop loss to protect against the risk of a big pullback.

To the upside, watch the apex of the previous triangle from which FCX broke down about three weeks ago. The apex of the triangle is near $95. This level could serve as a fulcrum over the short-term. It might serve as resistance and cap any further upside. Alternatively, a break above the apex of the triangle could trigger a new round of buying and push the stock up to $110.

China 25 iShares (FXI) - Bearish Wedge Retest

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A lot stocks -- A LOT -- are retesting support levels below which they broke last week. These previous support levels should serve as resistance. An example of this is seen in the FXI. It broke down from a bearish wedge last week with the drop below $161. The stock is close to retesting the level.

A two or three day pause near $161 should set the stage for a rollover and retracement back down to recent lows. A protective stop can be placed above resistance. As you can see, the risk versus reward in these set-ups are pretty good. But the key is waiting for the stock to stop going higher, waiting for the stock to pause at resistance. That's the best time to take a bearish entry point.

Bear Stearns (BSC) - Bearish Wedge Retest

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BSC is another stock that is retesting previous support. For its part, BSC broke down from a bearish wedge about five weeks ago with the drop below $90. The stock is back at that level now, which should serve as resistance. Tight stops just above $90 will manage risk to the upside, but wait at least one more day to see if the level continues to hold before taking new bearish positions.

4 Actionable Price Patterns for Tuesday

Posted on Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 10:23AM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in , , | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

The market is deeply oversold, so we're looking at a couple of bullish price patterns that have a high probability of moving higher. But the trend is still very much bearish, which is why we're also looking at two bearish continuation patterns.

CF Industries (CF) - Bullish Flag

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CF is breaking out from a bullish flag to a new 52-week high. Where have we seen this pattern before? Does POT come to mind? It should, because the two stocks are in identical trends. That's because they both make fertilizer. CF Industries manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer.

Stay diversified. Don't pull the trigger on CF if you're already in POT. Do take a closer look at CF if you missed the most recent action point in POT.

Alcoa (AA) - Double Bottom

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AA is an aggressive bullish play on the double bottom at $30. The stock is deeply oversold, like the broader market, and in a bearish trend. But the double bottom was traced at precisely $30 over the course of nearly six months. The precise rebound from $30 for a second time in six months lends some credence to the level holding as support. That makes it easy to manage risk with a stop just below $30. Reward might be between $35 to $37 over the short-term, but only if the broader market stabilizes.

FirstFed Financial (FED) - Bearish Wedge

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FED is another financial stock heading south. The bearish trend in the broader financial sector shows no signs of letting up. Therefore, look for a breakdown in FED below the $30 level, which marks the horizontal support level of the bearish wedge. Such a break could send the stock down to $20 in the short order.

Campbell Soup (CPB) - Bearish Wedge

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CPB is breaking down from a long-term bearish wedge. The stock's drop below $34 confirms the pattern. The stock might see $30 over the next four months.

We find the breakdown in CPB interesting because these types of stocks (consumer non-discretionary, i.e. food) typically do well in a bearish market climate. Something is not quite right about this price action, which has our interest piqued. Keep in mind, though, that CPB is a slow mover. It will most likely take a few months to see any meaningful movement in the stock.

The volatility in today's market reminds us very much of the last bear market, which began in late 2000 and ended in early 2003. Bear markets can be brutal to beginners. They can also be full of opportunity if you know what you're doing. Get in the know by reading our 5 Tips for Surviving the Bear Market.

Retail -- Double Bottom ***Update***

Posted on Monday, November 26, 2007 at 10:47PM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Black Friday and Cyber Monday were not so hot after all.

What a reversal!

Nevertheless, the retail sector remains an incredibly important indicator for this market right now. Keep watch of the sector through the Retail Holders (AMEX: RTH), which we profiled this morning. The double bottom is holding. All bullish bets are off if it cracks. Moreover, a break in the RTH might trigger another sell-off in the broader market on the belief that the U.S. consumer is further retrenching.

With all that said, Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) held up pretty well today. It's still within the bullish flag pattern. We think that some investors are betting that the deep discount retailers like WMT might actually do well this holiday shopping season as consumers seek out bargain prices.

Elsewhere, keep watch of Mastercard (NYSE: MA). It's a derivative play on the shopping season. The stock has traced out a bullish flag. Also, note that the stock is trading close to its 52-week high. That's relative strength! As such, keep MA on your radar as a trade candidate in the event of a short-term rally.

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Retail -- Double Bottom

Posted on Monday, November 26, 2007 at 08:37AM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in CommentsPost a Comment | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

The retail sales totals from Black Friday are looking good. This holiday shopping season is particularly important because we'll learn if the U.S. consumer is still confident and willing to spend or if the U.S. consumer is retrenching and afraid of the subprime woes, rising energy prices, falling dollar, etc.

Keep an eye on the Retail Holders (AMEX: RTH) over the next four weeks. It's going to serve as a proxy for this shopping season and, indeed, the U.S. consumer. The RTH traced out a double bottom at $91.50 over the last two weeks. Confirmation of the double bottom will come if the RTH closes above $97.00. The bullish price objective is $102.50 if the pattern confirms.

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Within the retail sector, keep watch of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). The stock completed its own double bottom two weeks, and has since held up relatively well. The stock has now traced a very short-term bullish flag. Look for a breakout in WMT to lead a run higher across the broader retail sector as measured by the RTH.

But be mindful of the longer term downward trends in the group. Just look at the WMT chart from two links ago via the link above. WMT still needs to clear its downward trend before being in a position to trend higher.

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