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Japanese Yen (FXY) Rallies

Posted on Friday, May 9, 2008 at 12:08PM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

The Japanese yen, which you can trade via the FXY just like any other stock or exchange traded fund, is an excellent way to hedge against further downside in stock market. The FXY generally moves inverse to equity prices.

It's been a while since I've highlighted the FXY. Earlier this year, we made a killing by simply buying on the many breakouts from bull flags:

Japanese Yen Signals More Trouble for Stocks

Sagging Dollar Yields Huge Moves in the Market

Watch the Japanese Yen When Timing Buys

I want to put the FXY back on the radar today not only as a potential trade, but as an indicator for the broader market. The FXY has been pulling back since mid-March, while stocks have been rallying. The FXY is rebounding today, from a long-term ascending trend line, and trying to breakout from its short-term descending trend.

A clean break of $97.50 would mark yet another bull flag for the FXY. It might also signal that stocks have further to fall going into next week.

FXY Bull Flag

Watch the Bear Flag in the Financials (XLF)

Posted on Thursday, May 8, 2008 at 10:58AM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), which is an exchange traded fund that tracks the broader financial sector, is forming a bear flag. The XLF is close to breaking down from the bear flag today.

You probably know by now that the financials have been lagging the market over the last six to nine months, although the group did stage a big bounce since mid-March. Still, financials are at risk of further downside which, in turn, puts the broader market at risk of the same.

A breakdown in the XLF from its bear flag could drag the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 lower. Keep the XLF on your radar even if you're not going to trade it.

XLF Bear Flag

Research In Motion (RIMM) Reaches Highs

Posted on Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:46PM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Research In Motion (RIMM) has been really good to me over the last month. The stock has steadily trended higher over this period, using an ascending channel. RIMM has reached its 52-week high and may pause, but the intermediate-term outlook is most favorable.

Last time I checked in with RIMM was in early April. Since then, the stock is up by about $15. You can read my past analysis of RIMM by following the link below:

Research In Motion (RIMM) Rides the Trend Higher

Recently, RIMM has been bouncing around near its 52-week high. The stock might pause at these levels, especially if the broader market softens. (Remember the old trader phase: Sell in May and go away.)

Looking beyond the summer, RIMM could be forming a cup and handle. The cup portion of this bullish continuation pattern has already formed. The handle could unfold over the next few months.

Of course, RIMM could rip higher this summer if the NASDAQ rallies. RIMM is on the top of my buy list if the broader tech sector does breakout.

Research In Motion (RIMM) Rallies!

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Explodes Higher

Posted on Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:40AM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns in | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

Please tell me that you got long some Anadarko Petroleum (APC) yesterday, after I highlighted its breakout from the bullish flag. The stock's up by 10 percent today! Put another way, it's good to be long natural gas.

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Soars

Obviously I'm excited about the move in APC today, along with the continued upside in the Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which is an exchange traded fund that tracks the commodity.

But no matter how excited I get or how confident I am that a trade will work, it's incredibly important to remember to never over-leverage a single sector. Natural gas is great and I think the sector will continue higher, but you can't take excessive risks. Stay diversified!

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Breaking from Bull Flag

Posted on Monday, May 5, 2008 at 11:10AM by Registered CommenterPrice Patterns | EmailEmail | PrintPrint

I've been extremely bullish on all things natural gas for a long time. Stocks in the natural gas sector and the commodity itself are breaking out yet again.

To catch up with some of my analysis on natural gas, you can go to the following post:

Natural Gas (UNG) About to Break from Bullish Triangle

The UNG is an exchange traded fund that tracks the underlying commodity. It's one of the purest ways to play natural gas without going into the futures market. Today, the UNG is breaking above $53.

Natural Gas Fund - UNG

Among the stocks in the group, Anadarko Petroleum (APC) is breaking out from a short-term bull flag. APC could run higher over the next few days if it can clear $70.

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Bull Flag

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